April 2013 Update
Paragon’s market overview for San Francisco Realtor District 5, which encompasses the central city neighborhoods of Noe Valley, Eureka Valley (including the Castro), Dolores Heights, Cole Valley, Mission Dolores, Haight Ashbury, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Glen Park, Twin Peaks & the Duboce Triangle
Many more market-dynamics charts can be found below.
District 5 is one of the more homogeneous districts in San Francisco in terms of property values, but still any analysis of an area with so many properties of different type, location, condition and quality can only be a very general overview.
District 5 soared in value between 1996 and 2008 and was one of the last districts to peak in value before the financial markets meltdown in September 2008. Values then fell 15% to 20% very quickly and then stabilized in 2009 and 2010. With the surge in high-tech buyers in 2011 (among other economic factors), activity in this district picked up dramatically.
In 2012, the competition between qualified, motivated buyers became ferocious: inventory levels are extremely low, certainly not enough to satisfy the huge buyer demand, and many listings are selling very quickly in multiple-offer, competitive-bidding situations. This is exerting considerable upward pressure on prices, which, if anything, appears to have accelerated further in 2013. Values now appear to be back at the peak values previously reached in 2007-2008, or even to have exceeded them.
Since opening our doors in 2004, Paragon has represented buyers and sellers in over 1500 transactions totaling $1.7 billion in sales in District 5, making us 1 of the top 2 brokers in these neighborhoods we know and love so well.
If you adjust your screen view to a 125% zoom, the charts will be that much easier to read. On Windows systems, pressing the Control and + keys simultaneously should do this quickly.
Homes Selling Over, Under and At List Price
One of the clearest indications of the extraordinary heat of the market in these central city neighborhoods is the huge percentage of listings selling for over asking price, and often far over asking price: 1 in 4 home listings that sell is closing for 10% or more over the list price.
Home Sales by Price Range
A snapshot of number of sales by price segment in 2012.
Average Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot
The two statistics of value in the charts following — average sales price and average dollar per square foot — can change depending on a number of market factors (seasonality, inventory available to purchase, the average size of the homes sold within a given time frame), but the general price trend is clearly and dramatically upward. High demand plus low supply equals higher prices. When neighborhoods are grouped together below, it is because they generally share similar market values in particular property types. Quarterly and annual statistics, because of the much greater amount of data, are typically more reliable than (fluctuating) monthly stats — but all statistics should be considered generalities.
Noe Valley, Eureka Valley (Castro), Dolores Heights: House Values
These neighborhoods generate the largest number of sales in Realtor District 5 and the market here has been red hot since 2012 began.
Cole Valley, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Corona Heights: House Values
This “greater Cole Valley” and Clarendon Heights area has a very distinctive neighborhood feel and the market here is also red hot. Houses here are on average much larger than in the Noe Valley-Eureka Valley neighborhoods, so their average sales price is much higher, but since, all things being equal, a larger house will sell for a lower dollar per square foot value, that value statistic typically runs lower.
Condo Values in Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys; Ashbury Heights; Buena Vista & Duboce Triangle
These District 5 neighborhoods are grouped together because their condo values are similar, though as is almost always the case in San Francisco, they include a wide variety of property sizes, styles and quality.
Glen Park House Values
Though adjacent to Noe Valley, home values in Glen Park are not as high, but prices here are also rapidly rising. Glen Park statistics fluctuate more than some other neighborhoods because the sizes of houses here vary so widely — thus the statistics vary simply based upon what houses happen to sell within a given time period.
2-4 Unit Building Sales in District 5
District 5 is filled with buildings of 2 to 4 units, though as time has passed more and more of them have been turned into TICs and condominiums (which increases the value of the properties).
Luxury Home Sales
Higher end home sales in the Noe Valley, Eureka Valley, Cole Valley and associated neighborhoods of Realtor District 5 dramatically surged in 2012. Though prices are still significantly lower than in the old-prestige, northern neighborhoods such as Pacific and Presidio Heights, this area is playing a greater and greater role in luxury home segment. High-tech buyers are definitely playing a major role in this dynamic.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
An excellent statistical snapshot of supply and demand. As the market heated up, the percentage started climbing higher in 2011 and is now at its highest level in memory.
Price Reductions, Sales Price to List Price Percentage, and Days on Market
Right now, the great majority of the homes that sell in District 5 now accept offers quickly before any price reductions are necessary and on average go well over asking price. However, those listings that go through one or more price reductions take much longer to sell and sell at a large discount to original list price. No matter what the market, proper pricing is a vital issue in the sale of real estate.
Homes for Sale on the Last Day of the Month
The drastically low inventory of homes available to purchase in this area is clearly illustrated in this chart.
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
MSI is at an extremely low level of inventory for houses and condos, a reading that would be considered indicative of a very strong “Seller’s Market.” Indeed anything under 3-4 months is usually considered a Seller’s Market.
Average Days on Market (DOM) Before Acceptance of Offer
These figures can fluctuate without great meaningfulness — a few listings that sell after being on the market for a long time can have a large impact on the average, even when new listings are selling very quickly — but the trend can be interesting. Right now, many listings are accepting offers within 7-14 days of going on market.
Statistical Definitions
All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Copyright Paragon Real Estate Group
